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The Long-Term Bull Case: Fed Pivot and Bullish Breadth
The Current Bull Market is Fresh
President Donald Trump’s April 2025 ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariff policy sent the US stock market into a period of uncertainty and created the first bear market since 2022 (a bear market is defined as a 20% drawdown from the previous high). Although bear markets are painful for investors holding long positions, they are a necessary evil and often lead to the most fruitful opportunities in the long term. While subsequent bull markets vary in length, history suggests that there may be a long runway ahead for the current bull market. Since 1942, the average bull market lasted more than four years and produced a cumulative total return of ~150%.
The Fed’s Dovish Pivot
Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made the long-awaited dovish pivot investors have been hoping for. Powell voiced concerns about the job market and signaled that he is finally ready to cut interest rates in September, saying, “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” While inflationary data looms, betting markets like Polymarket have the odds of a September rate cut at 83%.
Ryan Detrick of Carson Group points out that long waits between Fed rate cuts can be bullish, explaining, “5-12 month waits between cuts have seen the S&P 500 higher a year later 10 of 11 times.” As the old Wall Street adage goes, “Don’t fight the Fed!”
Market Breadth Flips Bullish
The “New High New Low” (NH-NL) indicator records the number of new 52-week highs in the market versus the number of 52-week lows in the market. Last Friday, the NYSE recorded its highest net new high reading of 2025.
Image Source: Stockcharts.com
In addition to the spike in new highs, a vast majority of stocks participated in the rally. In fact, the S&P 500 recorded a 94% upside day (94% of stocks were green). This was the first time in history that the market recorded a 90%+ upside day and simultaneously printed a fresh high. Though a 90% upside day has never occurred at a new market high, several 80% upside days have. Historically, the S&P 500 Index is higher six months later in 94% of instances.
Short-Term: September Seasonality Sours
Though the signals above should provide bulls with long-term confidence, the short-term is more uncertain. The Nasdaq has been red in September in six of the past ten years, averaging a loss of ~2.5%.
For now, investors are focused on semiconductor juggernaut Nvidia ((NVDA - Free Report) ), which is set to release its earnings tomorrow after the close. NVDA earnings will impact AI-related stocks like Arm Holdings ((ARM - Free Report) ), CoreWeave ((CRWV - Free Report) ),Advanced Micro Devices ((AMD - Free Report) ), and Oklo ((OKLO - Free Report) ).
Bottom Line
The stock market is at the beginning of a new, potentially long-lasting bull run. While the short term could be volatile due to bearish seasonal trends in September, long-term indicators suggest a strong foundation for the current trend.
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The Long-Term Bull Case: Fed Pivot and Bullish Breadth
The Current Bull Market is Fresh
President Donald Trump’s April 2025 ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariff policy sent the US stock market into a period of uncertainty and created the first bear market since 2022 (a bear market is defined as a 20% drawdown from the previous high). Although bear markets are painful for investors holding long positions, they are a necessary evil and often lead to the most fruitful opportunities in the long term. While subsequent bull markets vary in length, history suggests that there may be a long runway ahead for the current bull market. Since 1942, the average bull market lasted more than four years and produced a cumulative total return of ~150%.
The Fed’s Dovish Pivot
Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made the long-awaited dovish pivot investors have been hoping for. Powell voiced concerns about the job market and signaled that he is finally ready to cut interest rates in September, saying, “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” While inflationary data looms, betting markets like Polymarket have the odds of a September rate cut at 83%.
Ryan Detrick of Carson Group points out that long waits between Fed rate cuts can be bullish, explaining, “5-12 month waits between cuts have seen the S&P 500 higher a year later 10 of 11 times.” As the old Wall Street adage goes, “Don’t fight the Fed!”
Market Breadth Flips Bullish
The “New High New Low” (NH-NL) indicator records the number of new 52-week highs in the market versus the number of 52-week lows in the market. Last Friday, the NYSE recorded its highest net new high reading of 2025.
Image Source: Stockcharts.com
In addition to the spike in new highs, a vast majority of stocks participated in the rally. In fact, the S&P 500 recorded a 94% upside day (94% of stocks were green). This was the first time in history that the market recorded a 90%+ upside day and simultaneously printed a fresh high. Though a 90% upside day has never occurred at a new market high, several 80% upside days have. Historically, the S&P 500 Index is higher six months later in 94% of instances.
Short-Term: September Seasonality Sours
Though the signals above should provide bulls with long-term confidence, the short-term is more uncertain. The Nasdaq has been red in September in six of the past ten years, averaging a loss of ~2.5%.
For now, investors are focused on semiconductor juggernaut Nvidia ((NVDA - Free Report) ), which is set to release its earnings tomorrow after the close. NVDA earnings will impact AI-related stocks like Arm Holdings ((ARM - Free Report) ), CoreWeave ((CRWV - Free Report) ), Advanced Micro Devices ((AMD - Free Report) ), and Oklo ((OKLO - Free Report) ).
Bottom Line
The stock market is at the beginning of a new, potentially long-lasting bull run. While the short term could be volatile due to bearish seasonal trends in September, long-term indicators suggest a strong foundation for the current trend.